Xiangpiaopiao (603711): Juice tea growth stage sexual orientation Q3 high intake profit pressure

Xiangpiaopiao (603711): Juice tea growth stage sexual orientation Q3 high intake profit pressure
Performance summary: The company achieved operating income in the first three quarters of 201923.800 million (+41.7%), net profit attributable to mother 1.300 million (+57.4%), deducted non-net profit1.3.0 billion (+69.6%).Among them, Q3 achieved an operating income of 1 billion yuan (+ 24%), which was attributed to the mother’s net profit1.100 million (-21.6%), deducted non-net profit1.03 billion (-20.3%). Product: Q3 Juice Tea grows in stages and has a good momentum after brewing and upgrading.1. The company’s juice tea achieved revenue in the first three quarters7.700 million (+12.7%), of which Q3 single quarter 1.8 megabits (+ 225%, expected to be around 5 million cases), the decrease in Q2 from the previous quarter shifted, leading to: 1) Volume release at the end of June caused volumetric loss, which partially affected the reduction in July and August;School vacations in the month have hindered sales; 3) Insufficiencies in the company’s frozen showcases in the summer, and the terminal sales trend.4) After mid-August, the company began to tilt the focus of work towards brewing, resulting in a limited improvement in the capacity of juice tea staff.A combination of factors has caused the company’s juice tea to settle.In general, the company has signed a popular traffic niche, Deng Lun, as the new spokesperson for MECO, and has targeted and supplemented the terminal marketing team.At present, the juice tea has entered a relatively low season, and Q4 is expected to be relatively stable, and it is expected to make further efforts next spring.2. Liquid milk tea (Lanfangyuan + cow’s milk tea) achieved revenue of 99.39 million yuan (-38%) in the first three quarters, of which Q3 single quarter was 36.8 million yuan (+ 12%). Cow milk tea and Lanfangyuan focused on shrinking marketsConsumption groups began to resume normal growth after adjustment.3. Revenue from brewing business in the first three quarters14.900 million (+2.7%), of which the good material is 5.100 million (-6.6%), the classic line 9.800 million (+8.3%), Q3 company upgraded the packaging of existing products, repositioned the brand, signed a new spokesperson Wang Junkai, and launched a new product Shuangpin milk tea, the effect was significant, Q3 revenue increased by 8.3%.Taking into account the early Spring Festival this year, Q4 is actively stocking and is expected to continue better performance. Develop joint venture dealership plans and strengthen refined operation of channels.1. In terms of different channels, the distribution channel is still the main force (+ 40%), the e-commerce channel continues to develop 北京会所体验网 (+ 81%), and overseas markets recorded 11.7 million revenue (+ 290%).2. In terms of regions, markets in Northeast China, South China, and North China have experienced rapid growth. Juice and tea have contributed more and more, and all regions of the country have shown an overall growth trend.The company currently has 1,460 dealers, reporting an increase of 429 (mainly operating beverage channels), elimination of 256, and a net increase of 173 dealers.The company and dealers launched a three-year joint venture plan to further subdivide the market and channels, strengthen the control of terminals, and achieve sophisticated operations. Q3 expenses are high and net profit margin is reduced.1. The company’s overall gross profit margin for Q3 was 42.3%, zero for one year.25pp is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of juice tea with low gross profit margin. At present, the gross profit margin of juice tea is expected to be about 33% -35%.2. In terms of expenses: Q3 sales expenses in advance + 51% to 2.200 million, mainly due to the company’s signing of Wang Junkai, aerial advertising, as well as the promotion of juice and tea terminals and frozen display display, the sales expense ratio increased by 4pp to 21.8%; administrative expenses 5.63%, ten years +2.6pp, mainly due to the company’s equity incentive expenses accrued about 15 million yuan; R & D new products caused an increase of 8 million yuan in research and development costs; financial expenses expenditure -0.twenty three%.The overall three fee is priced at 27.2%, ten years +6.7pp, resulting in a decrease in net interest margin 6.3pp to 10.8%. Profit forecast and rating.While ensuring a completely fair incentive target, the company increased the cost to the market to ensure the healthy and healthy development of the channel.Due to the slightly lower-than-expected sales volume of Q3 juice tea, and considering the high cost of the company’s investment, the gradual profit forecast was slightly reduced. It is expected that the compound growth rate of revenue for 2019-2021 will be 21%, and the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers will be 25%.Is 0.86, 1.12.1.46 yuan, corresponding to PE of 33X, 25X, 19X, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk warning: raw material prices may fluctuate sharply, and sales may fall short of expectations.